My husband got into disc golf last year, and I overheard some of JoMez Pro’s coverage of this year’s Pro Worlds tournament while he was watching it on his phone. With my background in finance, one hole caught my attention. I know that people compare golf strategy to investment and the risks of hole 16 on Mulligans present a unique tactical problem.
The hole is 376’ long and plays as a par three. The basket sits upon a berm. The elevation of the basket places the rim above the players’ heads when they are standing on the flat ground at the base of the berm. The green is approximately 5’- 6’ wide on either side of the basket. Beyond that distance are two bunkers that play as hazards.
Nate Sexton said it was “one of the more treacherous holes” and that “trying to park this is probably not wise… you’d like to leave it a little short and trust your putt”.
Jeremy Koling agreed and said, “You don’t want to throw it where you’re testing the bunkers.”
Paul Ulibarri, on the other hand, said, “If you throw it pin high [and] have a shorter putt, even if you’re in the bunker, you’re taking par.”
Risk Management
Risk management in disc golf is analogous to the ways risks are handled in investing.
In bull markets, investors are confident and put less emphasis on mitigating risks. In bear markets, investors see big plays as a gamble and tend to take low-risk investments.
Hole 16 averaged over par at 3.15 strokes. During the coverage, it appeared most players opted to play a short tee shot into a 30’ – 45’ putt.
Let’s look at a brief overview of the outcomes for round 3’s lead card:
- McBeth
McBeth opts for a high, hyzer forehand shot. He angles the disc to land at the base of the berm between and short of the two bunkers. The throw is a bit wide. He rolls to the OB chalk line of the left bunker after landing short.
Paul throws his putt nose-up due to the elevation of the basket and grazes the rim. The nose angle now leads to the putt rolling down the berm. The disc comes to rest on the other side’s OB chalk line at the base of the berm. Both throws landed in bounds, and he made the next putt for par.
- Heimburg
Calvin throws a slighter, flatter forehand hyzer. He’s aiming for the same spot as McBeth, and also err’s a bit wide. He gets a considerable skip forward after landing shorter and further right than McBeth’s drive.
The Hazard rules for the bunkers mean that He’ll putt from where he landed. He makes an incredible putt for par from approximately 40’.
- Conrad
James Conrad’s drive is a low backhand with a mid range shot on a very straight line toward the basket. The disc selection and height land him in the same place the other players aimed. Aligned dead center between but short of the bunkers and inside the circle.
His putt hits squarely on the rim and rolls into the right-hand bunker, leaving him a tap-in Bogey.
- Keith
Emerson Keith’s tee shot was a dialed back clone of Calvin’s shot that lands just short of Paul’s drive.
His putt hits the cage and rolls down the berm. He is not in the bunker but is now further away than before he threw. He hits the cage again but lands close enough for a tap-in bogey.
Bears in a bull market
All four players adopted the same low-risk investment style shot. The outcomes were two circle’s edge putts for par and two tap-tin bogeys. In the end, I think Paul Ulibarri is right. This hole is a bull market.
